By Neil Crammond and Neelanjana Paul || 29th May 2024

The stocks are down today.
Why?
The fact is that most people do not pay attention to Government yields. If you look at the 10 Year German Government yields, they are up 2.74. If you look at the U.S. ones, they are up 1% after being up 2% yesterday, 4.590. And the U.K. are up almost 3%, 4.4060. They had a 140 Billion of Bond Auction last night and the yields were not accepted by the clients because they are expecting the interest rate to go higher. We have a 7 Year Auction tonight at 6 pm UK time. If that is the same case, people will think we will get high yields. If we take high yields from Governments, it means that you are going to put more money into Government Bonds than you are on to indices, so indices take a hit. So in theory, as yields go up, interest rate could go up, therefore the currency of that country could also go up. Hence, we see the Dollar rallies.
Currently the Treasury has to raise money because U.S. are in 35 Trillion in debt.

By Neil Crammond and Neelanjana Paul || 24th May 2024

With a three day break coming to the weekend, we do expect traders to possibly take home some Gold. 
Why?
The issues in China and Taiwan, Ukraine and Russia, Iran and Israel and Hamas etc. 
But don't take too much home as not being too greedy is the key. 
Why?
The US shuts at 7 pm tonight, an early close and obviously the UK is also on a three day break, so, we have a period of people leaving early on the weekend. Watch the volume.

By Neil Crammond and Neelanjana Paul || 22nd May 2024

Picture taken from Investopedia

The chances of a June Interest Rate Cut is diminished from 50% to 13% and the chances of an August Rate Cut dropped from 100% to 50%.
WHY?
Inflation has not dropped in the UK despite the official figure dropping 2.3% from 3.2% in March. 
WHY?
The OFGEM energy cap price was reduced by 12% on April 1st. Therefore, GBP rallied 127.61 and Short Term Interest Rate SONIA for September 2024, showed a rate hike of 0.2% pushing UK-10yYear Bond Yield up 3.54%.