Sell in May, Go Away

By Neil Crammond and Neelanjana Paul || 29th May 2024

The stocks are down today.
Why?
The fact is that most people do not pay attention to Government yields. If you look at the 10 Year German Government yields, they are up 2.74. If you look at the U.S. ones, they are up 1% after being up 2% yesterday, 4.590. And the U.K. are up almost 3%, 4.4060. They had a 140 Billion of Bond Auction last night and the yields were not accepted by the clients because they are expecting the interest rate to go higher. We have a 7 Year Auction tonight at 6 pm UK time. If that is the same case, people will think we will get high yields. If we take high yields from Governments, it means that you are going to put more money into Government Bonds than you are on to indices, so indices take a hit. So in theory, as yields go up, interest rate could go up, therefore the currency of that country could also go up. Hence, we see the Dollar rallies.
Currently the Treasury has to raise money because U.S. are in 35 Trillion in debt.